Grocery Buyers Shifting Tactics

Deloitte’s 2025 annual Retail Holiday Buyer Survey is out just in time for the holiday season. It provides deep insights into how grocery buyers are thinking about how to navigate the current consumer and business climate. The survey was conducted online and polled 50 retail industry buyers, 68% of whom were from retailers with annual revenues of US$15 billion or more, while 96% were from retailers with annual revenues of at least US$5 billion. The respondents included buyers, senior buyers, and buying or merchandising managers with a medium or high level of involvement in buying and merchandising for the coming holiday season.

In short, the survey found that shifts in global trade policy, along with consumer price sensitivity, appear to be reshaping retail’s holiday playbook behind the scenes. Many buyers are navigating uncertainty when procuring holiday goods with 78 percent of respondents expressing concerned about securing adequate inventory, while 76 percent are worried about possible issues with the reliability of suppliers amid geopolitical tensions. Sixty-four percent of surveyed respondents said consumers have pulled back spending in their category and 76% expect consumers to only make discretionary purchases around promotional periods, putting additional pressure on planning.

The survey found three strategies that buyers are implementing to help navigate today’s environment.

First, when it comes to stocking up on inventory, retail buyers reported they are front-loading their orders. Respondents said they placed more than half of all their holiday orders by the end of May, nearly two months ahead of last year’s timeline when compared to 2024. Approximately 1 in 5 retail buyers (20%) have paused shipments of certain orders until there is more trade certainty, and nearly as many (18%) have canceled orders deemed unprofitable.

Second, they’re not just buying earlier—they’re also buying from different places. Nearly 50% of surveyed retail buyers said they plan to increase sourcing from new vendors, with an average of 35% of holiday orders moving to new suppliers or countries.

Third, artificial intelligence is playing a larger role. Approximately 78% of surveyed retail buyers leverage AI-enabled tools to enhance buying activities, while 74% specifically utilize AI to address challenges stemming from trade policy–related changes. Respondents who are using AI report improvements in several areas:

• Supply chain management (46%): AI-driven analytics meant to provide deeper insights into supply chain dynamics could help retailers to predict potential disruptions and optimize logistics.
• Pricing optimization (46%): Advanced algorithms designed to analyze market trends and consumer behavior could help set competitive prices dynamically.
• Product assortment optimization (44%): AI solutions could help streamline inventory management, helping the right products to be available at the right time.
• Demand forecasting (28%): Predictive models could help retailers anticipate customer demand, reducing overstock and stockouts.

With the use of AI, grocery buyers can potentially turn uncertainty into opportunity and ensure shelves remain stocked to welcome the holiday rush.