BEEF is still on the table

There is little doubt beef will remain a staple in the Canadian diet throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is: at what price? Low demand from food service and the shift of product through retail created logistical disruptions for a time.

To start 2020, average beef retail prices were up 2% from last year in January and up 1% in February. In mid-March, retailers experienced soaring consumer demand as social distancing measures came into place with COVID-19. The surge in buying filled freezers and left the meat counter empty temporarily.

From February to May, food services demand typically heats up the middle meat market, supporting beef prices at wholesale. This spring, that’s likely to be muted. Daily US Choice rib primal prices took a chilly ‑25% dip into April. Restaurant capital flows will remain frozen until public health policy thaws.

As the weather heats up, consumers get more comfortable with cooking at home on the grill. Retailers have opportunities for bargain buying middle meats at wholesale given the void left by food service. Meat prices are expected to remain volatile as packers make decisions around processing levels. But it should be remembered there are plenty of supplies that just need to get through the processing plant.

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