October 2021 Beef Production Outlook – Large Local Supply

Total Canadian beef production (domestic slaughter plus slaughter exports) in 2021 is projected to be up 7.4% from 2020 to 1.6 million tonnes (3.6 billion pounds). The total increase is primarily driven by domestic production. Domestic production in 2021 is projected to be the highest since 2005, up 11.4% from 2020 to 1.4 million tonnes (3.2 billion pounds) this year. Live slaughter exports are projected to be down 19.3% to 159,800 tonnes (352 million pounds) as more cattle are being processed in Canada this year.

Fed beef production (coming from youthful cattle) at 1.87 billion pounds from January through September 2021 was 11% higher than the same period in 2020 and 16% higher than the five-year average. Fed beef production in 2021 is projected to end the year up 7.3% from 2020 to 1.3 million tonnes (3.0 billion pounds). Steer carcass weights January through September (911 lbs) were up 6 lbs from the same period in 2020 and up 10 lbs from the five-year average. Heifer carcass weights (840 lbs) January through September were up 5 lbs from the same period in 2020 and up 12 lbs from the five-year average. Fed cattle slaughter is projected to be up 11% to 3.1 million head in 2021, the highest since 2005.

Non-fed beef production (coming from mature cows and bulls) at 255 million pounds from January through September 2021 was 12% higher than the same period in 2020 and 1.3% higher than the five-year average. Non-fed beef production is projected to end the year 7.2% higher than 2020 at 569 million pounds, which would be back to 2019 levels and 6% higher than the five-year average. The domestic price of 85% trim has counter seasonal support in the third quarter this year keeping the Canada/U.S. boneless spread within CDN$0.03/kg (CDN$0.07/lb) in September.

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